SAG Awards Final Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Could Win?

The SAG Awards are coming this Sunday, and with over 150,000 voting members around the world, anything is on the table — in particular, the more populist choices. Last year, the SAG wins for Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” in the leading categories and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” for cast ensemble didn’t translate to Oscar success.

Jane Campion’s Netflix drama “The Power of the Dog” leads Oscar nominations with 12 and has run the table with precursors this season, with more than 25 wins from critics’ groups. One of its only notable misses was from the SAG Awards in the cast ensemble category, a spot that many previous Academy Award winners for best picture have occupied during their respective seasons. However, three of the last four winners of the Academy’s top prize have been able to triumph without it: “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020). The dark western could continue that trend.

“Belfast” could prove that it still has a firm hold on the season if it picks up the top prize from the largest guild in the country. However, the feel-good and inclusive nature of “CODA” could help it follow in the footsteps of past SAG winners like “Parasite” (2019), “Hidden Figures” (2016) and “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008). “King Richard” boasts a dynamic cast of standout newcomers (i.e., Saniyya Sidney and Demi Singleton) and veterans (i.e., Tony Goldwyn and Jon Bernthal). Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis’ omission from the guild’s supporting actress lineup could help the film’s chances in this category, to reward her outstanding achievement that was sadly overlooked. The film may also be more visible on ballots as voting ends on Feb. 25 — two days before the ceremony and the end of Black History Month.

Check out the final predictions for both film and television categories down below, and the latest video episode of Awards Circuit above.

SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE

• “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  Caitriona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Jude Hill, Ciarán Hinds, Colin Morgan
• “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
  Eugenio Derbez, Daniel Durant, Emilia Jones, Troy Kotsur, Marlee Matlin, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo
• “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
  Cate Blanchett, Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ariana Grande, Jonah Hill, Jennifer Lawrence, Melanie Lynskey, Kid Cudi, Rob Morgan, Himesh Patel, Ron Perlman, Tyler Perry, Mark Rylance, Meryl Streep
• “House of Gucci” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
  Adam Driver, Lady Gaga, Salma Hayek, Jack Huston, Jeremy Irons, Jared Leto, Al Pacino
• “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  Jon Bernthal, Aunjanue Ellis, Tony Goldwyn, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Will Smith

With an Oscar race that has been built around “Belfast” versus “The Power of the Dog,” which is not nominated in this category, this should be an easy pick up for the Focus Features drama. Once one of the strong barometers for what creates the best picture winner, the last three out of the four Oscar winners were able to do so without a nom for cast ensemble (“The Shape of Water,” “Green Book” and “Nomadland”). That doesn’t necessarily put the nail in the coffin at the winning chances for Netflix’s dark western, however if none of its three actors who are nominated pull off a win, that could be indicative of trouble that lies ahead. On the other hand, if “Belfast” can’t win when its biggest competitor isn’t present, that could also signal future stumbles, especially with BAFTA ahead. With the twists and turns that the season has provided, any of the five sprawling casts could win (in theory).

Will win: “CODA”
Could win: “Belfast”
Should win: “CODA”
Should have been nominated: “Nightmare Alley”

PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
• Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
• Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
• Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
• Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films)

This could be the cementing moment of Will Smith’s Oscar win if he pulls off an endearing moment at the SAG Awards, no matter how BAFTA shakes out. If the universe has other plans, Andrew Garfield’s beloved work in “Tick, Tick … Boom!” with the combination of a year that included “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” and the box-office smash “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” he could sneak past Smith. That could throw the entire race in flux, especially since Garfield isn’t nominated at BAFTA, leaving an opening for Benedict Cumberbatch to have his moment.

Will win: Will Smith
Could win: Andrew Garfield
Should win: Andrew Garfield
Should have been nominated: Simon Rex, “Red Rocket”

PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
• Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
• Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
• Jennifer Hudson, “Respect” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
• Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)

Welcome to the most wide-open race of the evening, and the year. Colman and Kidman have never won individual SAG film awards despite winning Oscars for “The Favourite” (2018) and “The Hours” (2002). Chastain has also never won, with two previous noms for “The Help” (2011) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012). Kidman seems to be the safe choice with a Golden Globe win for lead actress drama and could have the slight edge with a large voting body. However, if Gaga or Hudson pull it off, that’s going to help in the campaign for Kristen Stewart, who isn’t nominated here for “Spencer” but is at the Academy Awards.

Will win: Nicole Kidman
Could win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Olivia Colman
Should have been nominated: Tessa Thompson, “Passing”

PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios)
• Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
• Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
• Jared Leto, “House of Gucci” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
• Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)

It’s down to the two Oscar nominees, Troy Kotsur for “CODA” and Kodi Smit-McPhee for “The Power of the Dog.” Kotsur may have the local Los Angeles advantage with having a presence on the theatre stage. We should also watch out for Bradley Cooper, who missed out on an Oscar nom for “Licorice Pizza,” and is the only representation for the film here. Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) made history when he became the first person to win a SAG Award without being nominated at the Oscars. The same happened again with Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) but it doesn’t seem as likely as either Kotsur or McPhee winning.

Will win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Could win: Troy Kotsur
Should win: Troy Kotsur
Should have been nominated: Vincent Lindon, “Titane”

PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Caitríona Balfe, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
• Cate Blanchett, “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios
• Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
• Ruth Negga, “Passing” (Netflix)

Serving as the only nomination for “West Side Story,” Ariana DeBose can cement her steamrolling, frontrunner status for her role as Anita. DeBose would also be the first Latina to win a SAG film award in its 28-year history. If there is an upset, Kirsten Dunst is a popular actress who could shake things up with “The Power of the Dog.” In the same vein, as Cooper possibly upsetting in supporting actor, many were shocked by the exclusion of Caitríona Balfe for “Belfast” in supporting actress at the Oscars. She could have received a couple of snubbed-sympathy votes that could make a difference.

Will win: Ariana DeBose
Could win: Kirsten Dunst
Should win: Ariana DeBose
Should have been nominated: Olga Merediz, “In the Heights”

PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

• “Black Widow” (Marvel Studios)
• “Dune” (Warner Bros)
• “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
• “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
• “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel Studios)

Will win: “No Time to Die”
Could win: “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
Should win: “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
Should have been nominated: “Spider-Man: No Way Home”

TELEVISION

PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES

• “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
  Alexis Bledel, Madeline Brewer, Amanda Brugel, Ann Dowd, O-T Fagbenle, Joseph Fiennes, Sam Jaeger, Max Minghella, Elisabeth Moss, Yvonne Strahovski, Bradley Whitford, Samira Wiley
• “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)
  Jennifer Aniston, Shari Belafonte, Eli Bildner, Nestor Carbonell, Steve Carell, Billy Crudup, Mark Duplass, Amber Friendly, Janina Gavankar, Valeria Golino, Tara Karsian, Hannah Leder, Greta Lee, Julianna Margulies, Joe Marinelli, Michelle Meredith, Ruairi O’Connor, Joe Pacheco, Karen Pittman, Victoria Tate, Desean Terry, Reese Witherspoon
• “Succession” (HBO)
  Nicholas Braun, Juliana Canfield, Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, Dagmara Dominczyk, Peter Friedman, Jihae, Justine Lupe, Matthew Macfadyen, Dasha Nekrasova, Scott Nicholson, David Rasche, Alan Ruck, J. Smith-Cameron, Sarah Snook, Fisher Stevens, Jeremy Strong, Zoe Winters
• “Squid Game” (Netflix)
  Heo Sung-tae, Jun Young Soo, Hoyeon, Kim Joo-Ryung, Lee Byung-hun, Oh Yeong-su, Park Hae-soo, Anupam Tripathi, Wi Ha-Joon, Lee Jung-jae
• “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
  Kelsey Asbille, Wes Bentley, Ryan Bingham, Gil Birmingham, Ian Bohen, Eden Brolin, Kevin Costner, Hugh Dillon, Luke Grimes, Hassie Harrison, Cole Hauser, Jen Landon, Finn Little, Brecken Merrill, Will Patton, Piper Perabo, Kelly Reilly, Denim Richards, Taylor Sheridan, Forrie J. Smith, Jefferson White

Will win: “Squid Game”
Could win: “Succession”
Should win: “Squid Game”
Should have been nominated: “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)

PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES

• “The Great” (Hulu)
  Julian Barratt, Belinda Bromilow, Sacha Dhawan, Elle Fanning, Phoebe Fox, Bayo Gbadamosi, Adam Godley, Douglas Hodge, Nicholas Hoult, Florence Keith-Roach, Gwilym Lee, Charity Wakefield
• “Hacks” (HBO Max)
  Rose Abdoo, Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Paul W. Downs, Hannah Einbinder, Mark Indelicato, Poppy Liu, Christopher McDonald, Jean Smart, Megan Stalter
• “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)
  Jenna Lyng Adams, Sarah Baker, Casey Thomas Brown, Michael Douglas, Lisa Edelstein, Ashleigh LaThrop, Emily Osment, Haley Joel Osment, Paul Reiser, Graham Rogers, Melissa Tang, Kathleen Turner
• “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
  Aaron Dominguez, Selena Gomez, Jackie Hoffman, Jayne Houdyshell, Steve Martin, Amy Ryan, Martin Short
• “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
  Annette Badland, Kola Bokinni, Phil Dunster, Cristo Fernández, Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Toheeb Jimoh, Nick Mohammed, Sarah Niles, Jason Sudeikis, Jeremy Swift, Juno Temple, Hannah Waddingham

Will win: “Ted Lasso”
Could win: “Only Murders in the Building”
Should win: “Hacks”
Should have been nominated: “Reservation Dogs”

PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

• Brian Cox, “Succession” (HBO)
• Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)
• Kieran Culkin, “Succession” (HBO)
• Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
• Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (HBO)

Will win: Jeremy Strong
Could win: Kieran Culkin
Should win: Jeremy Strong
Should have been nominated: Billy Porter, “Pose”

PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

• Michael Douglas. “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)
• Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
• Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
• Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
• Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)

Will win: Steve Martin
Could win: Jason Sudeikis
Should win: Steve Martin
Should have been nominated: Andy Samberg, “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”

PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES

• Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Oscar Isaac, “Scenes from a Marriage” (HBO)
• Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (Hulu)
• Ewan McGregor, “Halston” (Netflix)
• Evan Peters, “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)

Will win: Michael Keaton
Could win: Oscar Isaac
Should win: Michael Keaton
Should have been nominated: Joel Edgerton, “The Underground Railroad”

PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

• Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)
• Jung Ho-yeon, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
• Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
• Sarah Snook, “Succession” (HBO)
• Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)

Will win: Jennifer Aniston
Could win: Sarah Snook
Should win: Sarah Snook
Should have been nominated: Mj Rodriguez, “Pose”

PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

• Elle Fanning, “The Great” (Hulu)
• Sandra Oh, “The Chair” (Netflix)
• Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
• Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
• Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)

Will win: Jean Smart
Could win: Hannah Waddingham
Should win: Jean Smart
Should have been nominated: Issa Rae, “Insecure”

PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES

• Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Cynthia Erivo, “Genius: Aretha” (National Geographic)
• Margaret Qualley, “Maid” (Netflix)
• Jean Smart, “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
• Kate Winslet, “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)

Will win: Kate Winslet
Could win: Jennifer Coolidge
Should win: Kate Winslet
Should have been nominated: Julianne Nicholson, “Mare of Easttown”

PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A TELEVISION SERIES

• “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
• “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” (Disney Plus)
• “Loki” (Disney Plus)
• “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
• “Squid Game” (Netflix)

Will win: “Squid Game”
Could win: “Loki”
Should win: “Cobra Kai”
Should have been nominated: “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)