With the Oscars just days away, the awards pundits and Hollywood whisperers are trying to read all the tea leaves and figure out what’s winning in all of the 23 categories.
A longtime friend and former writing colleague, Mark Johnson at Awards Daily, recently broke down the art of predicting, putting them into four simple rationales: data analysis, cultural zeitgeist, conversations with AMPAS members and gut instinct.
The data piece is what drives “Film Twitter,” while the cultural zeitgeist exists through viral videos on TikTok (like “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from “Encanto,” which isn’t nominated for Oscar but helps “Dos Oruguitas”).
The crop of nominees this year are not only diverse in their identities but also how their paths led them to these career-defining nominations. Several of the nominees and films could make or break records if they come to win.
Down below are potential records we could see at the 94th ceremony.
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Jane Campion Pulling Off the Hat Trick for Women Filmmakers
Image Credit: Michael Buckner for Variety Making history as the first woman to be nominated for directing twice, Campion’s already an Oscar-winning screenwriter for “The Piano” (1993) in original screenplay. With a nomination for adapting “The Power of the Dog,” this win would make her the first woman to win Oscars in both screenplay categories. Nominated for best picture, directing and writing, if Campion were to win all three, she would be the first woman filmmaker to do so, and ninth overall, with Bong Joon Ho being the last for “Parasite” (2019).
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Kristen Stewart Overcoming BAFTA and SAG Snubs
Image Credit: Screenshot Courtesy of YouTube/NEON The lead actress race has remained in a state of flux for weeks, as none of the Oscar nominees crossed for BAFTA. Stewart, who has won the most critics’ prizes this season, missed vital noms from BAFTA and SAG voting bodies for her performance in “Spencer.” If she manages to overcome the obstacles, she will be the first leading performance to win the Academy Award without noms from both groups in the modern era. Only two actors have achieved this in supporting actress: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2001) and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018).
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Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee Both Looking to the "Second" of Their Field
Image Credit: Kotsur: Apple; Smit-McPhee: Netflix From two of this year’s favorite films, Kotsur (“CODA”) and SmitMcPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) seem to be in a dead heat for who will ultimately win the Oscar, with both poised to make history if either crosses the finish line. Kotsur would be the second deaf actor ever to win an acting Oscar following his co-star Marlee Matlin, who was 21 when she won for “Children of a Lesser God” (1986). If Smit-McPhee emerges victorious, the 25-year-old would be the second-youngest actor to win the category, following Timothy Hutton. He was 18 when he won for the best picture winner, “Ordinary People” (1980).
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Ariana DeBose’s Latina Moment with the Same Character
Image Credit: Photo by NIKO TAVERNISE / 20th Century Studios Playing the role of Anita in Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story,” DeBose is poised to become the second Latina and first queer woman of color to win an acting Oscar following her co-star Rita Moreno, who won for the same role in 1961 original musical. Before this year, there have been two instances in Academy history of two different actors who won Oscars for playing the same character: Marlon Brando (“The Godfather”) and Robert De Niro (“The Godfather Part II”) as Don Vito Corleone and Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”) as the Joker.
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“Dune” Chasing “Cabaret”
Image Credit: Courtesy of Chia Bella James/Warner Bros. With a robust 10 Oscar noms, Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” is nominated in every technical category, standing a decent chance at picking up eight for the artisan races: production design, cinematography, costumes, editing, makeup and hairstyling, sound, visual effects and score. If it does, it will tie the musical “Cabaret” (1972) as the most awarded film to not win best picture.
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"CODA" Streaming Ahead
Image Credit: Courtesy of AppleTV+/Seacia Pavao After winning the top prize at the SAG Awards for cast ensemble, including supporting actor for Troy Kotsur, Apple Original Films’ “CODA” is gaining momentum, looking to be the first streamer to win best picture. With only three nominations for picture, supporting actor and adapted screenplay, no picture has won best picture without noms for directing and editing (since the category has been active). 2014’s “Birdman” had a directing nom. Also, “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989) is the only film in history to win the Academy’s top award without a nomination from the DGA Awards, which “CODA” does Spencer: Pablo Larrain/Neon; West Side Story: Niko Tavernise/20th Century Studios not have.