With the Oscars just days away, the awards pundits and Hollywood whisperers are trying to read all the tea leaves and figure out what’s winning in all 23 categories.
A longtime friend and former writing colleague, Mark Johnson at Awards Daily, recently broke down the art of predicting, putting them into four simple rationales: data analysis, cultural zeitgeist, conversations with AMPAS members and gut instinct.
The data piece is what’s driven by Film Twitter, while the cultural zeitgeist you see through viral videos on TikTok (for example, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from “Encanto,” isn’t nominated for Oscar but helps “Dos Oruguitas.”)
This year’s crop of nominees represents interesting record breakers and trends in the Oscar canon. So let’s break it all down and how it could hint to potential winners in the wings.
In the acting categories, nine are first-time nominees: Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”), Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”).
Will Smith is the second Black creative to be nominated for acting and producing in the same year for “King Richard.” Jessica Chastain, nominated for lead actress for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” also serves as a producer for her film. Only two people in history have produced themselves to acting wins — Laurence Olivier for “Hamlet” (1948) and Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (2020).
Neon’s “Flee” is the first film nominated for animated, documentary and international feature. Directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen, it’s also the first doc to be nominated for animated feature and vice versa. In addition, it’s the second animated film following “Waltz With Bashir” (2008), and the fifth documentary after “Waltz,” “The Missing Picture” (2013), “Honeyland” (2019) and “Collective” to be nominated for international feature.
Steven Spielberg received his 11th nomination for best picture for “West Side Story,” a record for an individual producer since 1951 when producers began being named as nominees. His nominated sound mixer Andy Nelson nabbed his record 22nd Oscar nom and is now tied for the third-highest number of nominations among those living, with composer songwriter Randy Newman. Only Woody Allen, with 24 and John Williams with 54, are above him.
Nominated for lead actor and actress, Javier Bardem for “Being the Ricardos” and Penélope Cruz for “Parallel Mothers” are the sixth married couple nominated for acting in the same year.
Troy Kotsur, supporting actor nominee for “CODA,” is the second deaf actor to be nominated after his co-star Marlee Matlin won an Oscar for lead actress for “Children of a Lesser God” (1986), the first film directed by a woman to be nominated for best picture.
For “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion becomes the first woman to receive more than one nomination for directing. In addition, she is the fourth woman to be nominated for directing, writing and best picture for the same film following Sofia Coppola for “Lost in Translation” (2003), Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman” and Chloé Zhao for “Nomadland” (2020).
“The Power of the Dog” has the most Oscar nominations with 12. However, it’s not always a given that the film with the most noms wins the top prize. Only three in the past 12 years have achieved this feat: “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Birdman” (2014) and “The King’s Speech” (2010).
Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” has a robust 10 Oscar noms, the second of any film. It’s the sixth film in history to be nominated in every technical category following “Titanic” (1997), “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” (2003), “Hugo” (2011), “Mad Max: Fury Road” (2015) and “The Revenant” (2015). However, Villeneuve is the first in that group who wasn’t also nominated for directing. If it sweeps the eight artisan categories, it will tie “Cabaret” (1972) as the most winning film to not win best picture. If it wins more than five, it ties “The Bad and the Beautiful” (1952) as the most awarded film that wasn’t nominated for directing.
Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” and Siân Heder’s “CODA” are among the top three contenders for best picture with seven and three nominations apiece.
There have only been three films to have won best picture with fewer than three nominations: “Wings” (1927, two), “The Broadway Melody” (1929, three) and “Grand Hotel” (1932, one). Apple Original Films’ “CODA,” which has noms for best picture, supporting actor and adapted screenplay, would be the least nominated best picture winner in 90 years. Pundits predicting either of the feel-good films are doing so with just one other prize. If either won only two, they would join “Spotlight” (2015) and “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952) as winners with only two.
“CODA” winning best picture would trump historical precedents and stats. It would be the second film to win best picture without a DGA nomination following “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989). In addition, it would be the second film to win without any nominations in artisan categories after “Grand Hotel,” which was only nominated for best picture.
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, nominated for director for “Drive My Car,” represents the fourth consecutive year that a film nominated in the international feature category also received a helming nomination.
For “The Power of the Dog,” Ari Wegner is the second woman to be nominated for cinematography after Rachel Morrison for “Mudbound” (2017), also a Netflix feature.
The title track from “No Time to Die” is the sixth song from the James Bond franchise nominated for the original song. Previous nominees were the title song from “Live and Let Die” (1973); “Nobody Does It Better” from “The Spy Who Loved Me” (1977); the title song from “For Your Eyes Only” (1981); the title song from “Skyfall” (2012), which won the award; and “Writing’s on the Wall” from “Spectre” (2015), which also won.
Riz Ahmed joined an exclusive club with his nom for live action short for “The Long Goodbye.” He’s the fifth person to have nominations for acting and a short film category, following Peter Sellers, Dyan Cannon, Kenneth Branagh and Christine Lahti, who won live action short in 1995.
18 of the past 21 visual-effects winners were also nominated for production design. The only exceptions are “Spider-Man 2” (2004), “Ex Machina” (2015) and “The Jungle Book” (2016). So odds are, “Dune” is your winner.
No film has won animated feature without a BAFTA nom, which removes “Raya and the Last Dragon.”
10 of the past 11 BAFTA winners have gone on to win the Oscar, including Anthony Hopkins for “The Father” over Chadwick Boseman for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” an upset in 2021.
One of the two ACE Eddie winners has won the Oscar 22 of the past 30 years. Ten of the previous 14 BAFTA winners have walked away with the Academy Award. Coincidentally, film editing and sound have matched for the past eight years. This means if you are predicting “Dune” in sound, you might also want to take it in editing.
