Oscars to Test Link Between TV Ratings and Box Office for Best Picture Contenders

Universal and Warner Bros.’ decision to release their respective “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” tentpoles on the same summer weekend proved a boon for the box office last year, with the former earning well over $1 billion worldwide and the latter close to that.

Does that mean anything for Sunday’s Academy Awards on ABC?

Recent years have not been kind to Oscar ratings, but that doesn’t mean the Academy’s embrace of films that were popular in theaters hasn’t sometimes helped reverse course.

Last year was a perfect example. The 2022 ceremony was marred by Will Smith’s infamous slap of Chris Rock before Smith took home best actor for “King Richard,” making the show’s sudden ratings influx more embarrassing than impressive.

However, 2023’s inclusion of global sensations “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Top Gun: Maverick,” not to mention A24 show stealer “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” seemed to aid the show in delivering better ratings than the Slap did.

And thanks to “Barbenheimer,” Sunday’s ceremony marks the first time since 2011 films nominated for best picture totaled more than $1 billion domestically for two consecutive years.

That “Oppenheimer” would play a crucial role in the show’s theatrical value is especially poetic. Director Christopher Nolan is partially responsible for the Academy’s decision to widen the number of best picture nominees past five, starting with the 2010 ceremony, as the absence of “The Dark Knight” from the top award in 2009 generated excessive backlash. 

Still, the Academy is selective when it comes to nominating blockbusters for best picture. While “The Dark Knight” was both a theatrical and critical smash, the Oscars’ widening of top-prize options did not see any DC or Marvel film included until “Black Panther” in the 2019 ceremony. As popular as “Black Panther” was with audiences and critics, the small bump in Oscar ratings that year wasn’t sustained in the 2020 show. 

Nolan’s “The Dark Knight Rises” was similarly glossed over for 2013, but DC’s billion-dollar “Joker” spectacle was a standout in the 2020 broadcast, earning Joaquin Phoenix best actor, though best picture went to Korean hit “Parasite.”  

That show excluded “Avengers: Endgame,” which at the time was the top-grossing film in history. 2009’s “Avatar” later reclaimed that position through a re-release, and its 2022 sequel finished as the third best ever. Unlike every “Avengers” film, both “Avatar” movies were nominated for best picture. 

“Joker” was also a standalone R-rated film that many critics saw as a mashup of Martin Scorsese’s “The King of Comedy” and “Taxi Driver.” Its inclusion was consistent with other R-rated films that have won over audiences in theaters, such as “Mad Max: Fury Road” in the 2016 ceremony and multiple Quentin Tarantino films. Clearly, Academy voters are drawn to darker subject matter. 

This makes “Oppenheimer” especially significant. Despite the presence of cinema mainstays at the Oscars, only two best picture winners have grossed more than $100 million domestically since the award was expanded for the 2010 show: “The King’s Speech” in 2011 and Ben Affleck’s “Argo” in 2013. Like “Oppenheimer,” both were historical period pieces, but unlike Nolan’s nuclear hit, neither came near $1 billion worldwide nor passed $300 million stateside. 

“Oppenheimer” is about as good as it gets when it comes to having a best-of-both-worlds option at the Oscars. It meets every mark on the Academy’s prestige checklist with filmmaker favorite Nolan, a star-studded cast backing lead actor Cillian Murphy and period appeal. 

“Barbie” is far less likely to take home best picture — after all, Margot Robbie wasn’t nominated for best actress and voters aren’t typically enticed by titles from IP houses like Mattel — but that doesn’t mean it won’t play a vital role in the ceremony.

Ryan Gosling is still nominated for best actor and is on deck to perform musical number “I’m Just Ken” from the film, showing how less prestigious films like “Barbie” can be put to effective use from a programming angle. As big as “Joker” was, Phoenix never reenacted the film’s infamous stair sequence onstage. 

Another indication the Academy is striving for better ratings is its narrowing of streaming films in the top category. For the second year in a row, only one film that bowed first on a streamer — Netflix’s “Maestro” — is up for the top prize Sunday. 

To date, Apple’s “CODA” is the only streaming title that has won best picture, and it coincided with the second consecutive year three SVOD titles were up for the award. It’s understandable that voters considered more streaming films during the 2021 and 2022 shows when theaters were still heavily impacted by the pandemic, but it doesn’t change the fact that both shows remain the lowest rated.  

Likewise, Apple has since partnered with the studios to distribute films in theaters before they hit Apple TV+, which was the case for Paramount’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” one of Sunday's best-picture contenders, further underscoring the important role theaters play in generating hype for Academy-friendly films.

Nolan may not have gotten the release climate he wanted for “Tenet,” but “Oppenheimer” will hit the Oscars as a simultaneous audience, box-office and critical draw. If it doesn’t blow up ratings, it will be the biggest death knell yet for the Academy’s relevance.